Syrian regime has fallen

Welcome back to SovereignBeat!

• Fed set to cut rates this month as US unemployment ticks higher

• French government collapses after no-confidence vote

• Bitcoin soars past $100K milestone

• OPEC postpones easing production limits yet again

• Assad regime falls, ending 5 decades of rule

Let’s dissect

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Markets Snapshot

Macro and Fixed Income Markets

• US: US hiring gained momentum in November, accompanied by a slight rise in the unemployment rate, signaling a labor market that is moderating rather than sharply declining. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, following an upwardly revised gain of 36,000 in October—a month impacted by storms and strikes—according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the past three months, payroll growth has averaged 173,000, reflecting a slowdown from the stronger gains seen earlier in the year.

• The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, highlighting reduced demand for workers and the highest level of long-term unemployment in nearly three years. Separately, In the latest Beige Book survey, the Fed reported slight increases in economic activity in November, modest inflation, and difficulties for businesses in passing on higher costs. Hiring was subdued, with low turnover and limited layoffs, while businesses expected steady to modest growth in employment. This further supported the likelihood of a rate cut, with the implied probability of a 25-basis-point reduction on December 18th rising from 75% to 86% over the week. US 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.17% as investors evaluated the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory.

• A Consumer Price Index report, set for release on Wednesday, will provide the U.S. Federal Reserve with another critical data point ahead of its December 17–18 meeting. October's CPI showed an annual rate of 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September, highlighting uneven progress in aligning inflation with the Fed's 2.0% long-term target.

• Last week, The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the US trade deficit narrowed in October from a two-year high, driven by a decline in imports of consumer goods and business equipment. The trade gap in goods and services decreased by nearly 12% to $73.8 billion. However, the deficit could widen in early 2025 if businesses increase imports to preempt tariffs pledged by President-elect Donald Trump. Additionally, the strong US dollar may keep the deficit elevated by making American goods less competitive globally.

• France: Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s minority government collapsed after Parliament passed a no-confidence motion led by the National Rally (NR) and the left-wing New Popular Front, blocking the proposed 2025 deficit-reducing budget. Following the vote, the yield spread between German 10-year bunds and French 10-year OATS—a key indicator of eurozone political and financial risk—briefly widened to 90 basis points, its highest level since 2012. The spread later narrowed to below 80 basis points after President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to appoint a new prime minister in the "coming days" and pledged to engage with leaders from across the political spectrum to form a government of general interest.

• Japan: The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) latest commentary struck a balanced tone, with board member Toyoaki Nakamura emphasizing that any decision on an interest rate hike will depend on incoming data, particularly wage and economic growth. Markets remain divided on whether the next 25-basis-point hike will occur in December or January. The BoJ's next monetary policy decision is scheduled for December 19, a day after the FED meeting. The 10y Japanese government bond yield remained stable, closing the week flat at 1.06%.

Equity Markets

• US: The NASDAQ climbed over 3%, marking its third consecutive weekly gain and reaching record territory alongside the S&P 500, which rose 1% for the week. Meanwhile, the Dow dipped slightly after retreating from its record high set on Wednesday. A U.S. large-cap growth index outpaced its value counterpart, continuing its year-to-date dominance. The growth index rose 3.6% for the week, while the value index dropped 1.9%.

• France: CAC equity index posted a weekly gain of nearly 4%, despite political instability that led to the forced resignation of the country’s prime minister on Wednesday.

Commodity Markets

• Oil: OPEC+ has delayed the revival of oil production for the third time, postponing the move by three months amid concerns over a potential surplus and weak crude prices. The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced that the planned supply increases—initially set to begin in January with a hike of 180,000 barrels per day—will now start in April and proceed at a slower pace than previously outlined. The United Arab Emirates, which had secured approval to independently add 300,000 barrels per day starting January, also agreed to defer increases until April in recognition of changing market dynamics. If the demand outlook worsens further, the impact of current production cuts may wane, potentially pushing crude prices into the $60 range. Brent crude ended the trading week on Friday down 1%, closing at $71 per barrel.

• Bitcoin: The most widely traded cryptocurrency surpassed the $100,000 mark for the first time on Thursday, peaking at $103,900 before settling around $100,000 on Sunday afternoon. This marks a significant rise from its $70,000 level at the beginning of November.

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Syrian rebels Topple Assad's Regime

• On Sunday, Syrian rebels overthrew President Bashar al-Assad's regime, seizing the capital, Damascus, and prompting nationwide celebrations. Assad fled to Moscow with his family, seeking asylum under Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia and Iran were Assad's chief supporters but were stretched thin by involvement in other conflicts and did not have enough manpower to support the dictator’s regime this time.

• The rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), swiftly took control of key government facilities, including the presidential palace and several embassies. The U.S., U.K., France, and Germany welcomed Assad's fall and urged peace and stability, while Russia placed its military bases on high alert and appealed for a political resolution. Neighboring countries like Lebanon and Jordan closed most border crossings with Syria, and Israel claimed a buffer zone in the Golan Heights amid the unrest.

• The future of Syria is fraught with uncertainty. The power vacuum left by Assad’s regime is likely to trigger intense competition among various actors, including HTS, other rebel factions, remnants of Assad’s loyalists, and external powers seeking influence. This dynamic raises the prospect of a fragmented and contested landscape, with multiple parties striving to seize control. In the short term, Syria risks descending into a period of volatility and may remain ungoverned for some time.

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Our Further Reading Recommendations

• Assad’s Fall: The End of Syria’s Brutal Ruling Dynasty (Bloomberg)

• Ghana's former president wins election (Reuters)